Open thread for night owls: EIU ranks possible Trump presidency as one of 'top 10 global risks'

Rss@dailykos.com (hunter) · Wednesday, March 16, 2016, 11:22 pm

The Economist Intelligence Unit is a London-based forecasting and analysis unit within The Economist Group, the much respected (and notably not-liberal) publisher of the magazine by the same name. For the first time, they have marked the prospects of a named United States presidential candidate as one of the top ten risks to the world economy.

A Donald Trump presidency poses a top-10 risk event that could disrupt the world economy, lead to political chaos in the U.S. and heighten security risks for the United States, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

Electing Trump could also start a trade war, hurt trade with Mexico and be a godsend to terrorist recruiters in the Middle East, according to the latest EIU forecasts.

For the April 2016 edition, “Donald Trump wins the US presidential election” is ranked in severity between the possible Greece-inspired collapse of the euro zone and an increase in jihadi terrorism that rose to destabilize the world economy.

Until Trump, the firm had never rated a pending election of a candidate to be a geopolitical risk to the U.S. and the world. The firm has no plans to include Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz or John Kasich on future risk lists.

In their analysis, EUI rates a Trump presidency as having “Moderate probability, High impact”, noting that while “we do not expect Mr. Trump to defeat his most likely Democratic contender, Hillary Clinton, there are risks to this forecast, especially in the event of a terrorist attack on US soil or a sudden economic downturn.”

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