Thursday, October 01, 2015

This could be the start of some big trouble.

Russia says it’s bombing ISIS in Syria. 

It’s actually bombing their enemies.

Vladimir Putin with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2005.Salah Malkawi/Getty Images
Russia began bombing targets in Syria on Wednesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin has framed his military intervention there as targeting terrorist groups, especially ISIS. And Russia said its strikes today were launched against ISIS.
Don't believe it. The strikes reported this morning aren't happening anywhere near ISIS territory and aren't actually hitting ISIS positions, as a look at the following map from theInstitute for the Study of War (ISW) should make clear. In fact, Russia is bombing ISIS'senemies in the Syrian opposition — which makes a lot more sense if you understand what Russia is really trying to accomplish.
According to ISW researcher Genevieve Casagrande, a Russian airstrike this morning appears to have hit Talbiseh, a town in the tan rebel-held swatch just north of Homs, in Syria's west. You'll note that this is nowhere near ISIS territory, marked in gray:
"Talbiseh is home to Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, hardline Islamist Ahrar al-Sham, and a number of other local rebel groups," Casagrande explains. These organizations are generally hostile to ISIS. "The airstrike," she concludes, "did not hit ISIS militants."
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