Zack Beauchamp · Tuesday, March 08, 2016, 8:39 am
The rise of Donald Trump has terrified a lot of people around the world, and rightly so. But one person should be especially worried: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Trump, alone in the modern Republican Party, has tacked away from unconditional support for Israel. He has said he would take a "neutral" stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and suggested that if negotiations fail it might well be Israel's fault.
These comments don't reflect a fundamental challenge to America's Israel policy. Every American president has maintained neutrality on the Israel-Palestine conflict; each of the past three presidents has put pressure on Israel over the conflict.
Rather, Trump is challenging the way you're supposed to talk about Israel in the Republican Party. GOP presidential candidates have, for years now, felt the need to demonstrate unconditional support for Israel. While Trump's statements are in line with American policy, they're out of step with this traditional rhetorical requirement.
Trump, despite drawing attack from other GOP candidates on this issue, has paid no obvious electoral price for it. And that suggests Netanyahu could have a problem in Trump.
Netanyahu's core strategy for managing the US-Israel relationship depends on the GOP remaining a hard-line pro-Israel party, which he can rely while in power on to enact pro-Israel policies, and while out of power to pressure Democrats to tilt policy more in Israel's favor. This dynamic is particularly pronounced when it comes to the Israel-Palestine conflict and whatever pressure the US puts on Israel to find peace and end the occupation of the Palestinians.
Trump's success suggests that the GOP electorate may be only so committed to that position, as Haaretz's Chemi Shalev explains well in a recent column:
Exactly a year after Netanyahu took this logic to its extreme and stood on the podium of Congress as Leader of the Republican opposition to President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, the conception is falling apart. The notion that the Republican Party is a monolithic bastion of support that will withstand the test of time is evaporating. The belief that any Republican president who will follow Obama will be better for Israel is eroding with each passing day. Faced with the Trump phenomenon, Netanyahu’s Fortress GOP strategy is collapsing like a house of cards.
Trump's rise, and what it could portend for GOP politics and policies, suggests that Netanyahu's strategy for deflecting American pressure on the Israel-Palestine conflict may not be as foolproof as he'd hoped.
Netanyahu's "fortress GOP" strategy, explained
Benjamin Netanyahu is a right-wing Israeli politician who has long clashed with Democratic presidents. He believes, probably correctly, that Republicans would be less likely to pressure Israel into comprehensive peace negotiations, and more likely to take an aggressive approach to Israeli enemies in the region such as Iran.
So Netanyahu has formed a tacit alliance with the GOP, even though this comes at the expense of his relationship with Democrats.
When Netanyahu first ran for prime minister in 1996, Bill Clinton all but openly campaigned against him, inviting incumbent Prime Minister Shimon Peres to visit the White House just before the vote. Clinton thought Netanyahu's opposition to a Palestinian state would jeopardize peace negotiations. Netanyahu won anyway, resulting in constant tension in the US-Israel relationship until Netanyahu's defeat in 1999.
Netanyahu retook the premiership in 2009, and clashed with President Obama from day one on issues such as Iran and the peace process. Most famously, he conspired with Republicans to give to a major speech to Congress behind Obama's back, in March 2015, opposing the Iran nuclear deal.
This tension stems from a fundamental disagreement between Democrats and Netanyahu over policy — particularly his deep skepticism about the desirability of a Palestinian state. To counteract that, Netanyahu has pioneered a novel approach to Israel's relationship with the US: Ally with the Republican Party, and leverage overwhelming GOP support to defray the consequences of any conflict he has with Democrats.
Netanyahu has thought something like this for a long time. When Clinton was president, the prime minister built up relations with Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and evangelical leader Jerry Falwell. In 2012, he practically endorsed Mitt Romney over Obama, to the point where clips of Netanyahu speeches were being featured in pro-Romney campaign ads.
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